Money managers aggressively covered their short gold exposure, as talk of a Fed pivot drove rates and the greenback lower. Nevertheless, economists at TD Securities expect the yellow metal to edge lower as the Fed is set to move aggressively this week. 

Fed is unlikely to pivot to a dovish direction

“Despite the price moving higher and markets musing about inflation turning lower in the not too distant future and hoping the US central bank would sharply reduce the pace of tightening, long exposure did not increase one bit. This suggests to us that while traders don’t see rates accelerating much beyond what is currently priced, at the same time they don’t see a dovish tilt anytime soon.” 

“Gold prices are likely to head lower. The Fed will move aggressively on Wednesday and most likely will signal a continued tightening bias. Unless there is some sort of concern over financial stability, the US central bank is unlikely to pivot to a dovish direction. This implies that prices and length should decrease, once family offices and other specs cut exposure in response to rising front-end rates.”