• USDJPY: Ceiling at 155, with 160 still a long way off – MUFG

Market news

3 November 2022

USDJPY: Ceiling at 155, with 160 still a long way off – MUFG

USDJPY reached 150 for the first time since 1990 on the view that the Fed could raise rates to over 5% next year. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the pair to peak at the 155 level.

The peak in the Dollar's strength against the Yen is not far off

“If the market prices in a rise in the federal funds rate to the low 5% level through next year, we would expect the 2y UST yield to rise back to around 5%. This suggests the USDJPY could rise by five Yen from its current level of 148.”

“We forecast a near-term USDJPY ceiling of 155 given that it has already passed 150 once, is still hovering around 148, and considering the speed of its ascent over the last six-plus months.”

“The 2 April 1990 high of 160.35 could come into view if the Fed steps up its communication with the market and a terminal rate of 5.5% to 6% comes into view, but we do not expect this at present.”

 

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