This year’s move by EURUSD to, and then below, parity marked the first time in about 20 years that the currency pair has traded at these levels. Economists at Rabobank expect EURUSD to move around 0.95 in the coming months.

Fundamentals still biased toward further downside pressure for the Euro

“Fundamentals are still biased towards further downside pressure for the currency pair in the coming months, meaning we would view rallies as an opportunity to sell.”

“In particular we don’t see the EUR as being priced for the impact of winter 2023 and what a prolonged period of expensive energy may mean for the German business model, Europe’s trade and current account balances and the value of the EUR.”

“We have revised lower our forecast for EURUSD on a 12-month view to 0.95 from 1.05. We expect EURUSD to trade choppily around this level in the months ahead.”