Economists at Credit Suisse maintain their view we have already seen an important top in USDJPY at the core target of 147.62/153.01. Thus, the pair could suffer a substantial drop to 140.35/30. 

Sustained closing break above 153.01 to curtail thoughts of looking for a top

“USDJPY extends its consolidation after achieving and rejecting the upper end of our long-term objective at 147.62/153.01 – the 32.8% retracement of the fall from 1982 and the price high of 1998. We maintain our base case of looking for a potentially important top here. We thus look for a fall back to 145.12, then the 55-day average at 144.60/50.” 

“A close below 144.60/50 can further reinforce thoughts of a top and a fall to 140.35/30 next, the 23.6% retracement of the 2021/2022 uptrend and late September low.”

“A direct and sustained closing break above 153.01 though would curtail immediate thoughts of looking for a top with resistance then seen next at the 160.33 high of 1990.”