The New Zealand Dollar weakened below 0.61 the figure at the start of the week, retreating from two-month highs after a top US central banker warned investors against pricing in a Federal Reserve pivot so soon despite the US inflation data. The bird has not really been able to look back since and is poised for a correction vs. the US dollar as per the technical analysis below.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller crossed the wires and said Friday's inflation report was "just one data point," and that markets are "way out in front". This is a theme that is gathering pace in the open as per the following article:
''The degree of excitement around last week’s softer US CPI data is waning a touch, and it is just one data point,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said. ''Still, as we noted yesterday, there is a growing sense in the market that the days of USD dominance might be past us, and the Kiwi is in a neatly defined uptrend channel.''
Domestically, Reserve Bank of New Zealand officials said that high inflation and a tight labor market in the country call for demand to be cooled, though they flagged downside risks to the global economy. Investors are now looking for the RBNZ to raise interest rates by a larger increment of 75 basis points in November having delivered a half-percentage point increase in October.
The price is now on the back side of the trendline and it may have established a high for the week. If so, then the above scenario could play out with a focus on a break of structure below 0.6070. On the other hand, the bulls might now be quite done yet with 0.6150 eyed: