The Swedish inflation report this morning was a mixed bag. All in all, economists at ING expect the EURSEK to move back to the 11.00/10.90 area in the near term.

Riksbank may go for 75 bps after all

“Headline inflation rose less than expected (from 10.8% to 10.9% YoY), CPIF inflation surprisingly declined (from 9.7% to 9.3%) but core CPIF rose (7.4% to 7.9%). Ultimately, the latter may matter more than the others for the Riksbank, which announces policy on 24 November, and that may tilt the balance towards a 75 bps rate hike.”

“Implications for the Krona should remain quite limited – today’s muted FX reaction to CPI was a case in point.” 

“We think SEK remains in a disadvantageous position compared to other procyclical currencies to benefit from an improvement in risk sentiment given the still clouded European outlook.”

“We see room for a return toward 10.90/11.00 in EURSEK in the near term.”