Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, discusses the latest news and the outlook for the main currency pairs. Of note, EURUSD should remain under 1.05, in their view.

EURGBP has further to rise

“This morning’s news confirms that Australia has some, but not too much wage growth; that will keep the RBA hiking and eventually, will help the AUD, but they have a long way to catch up with Fed or indeed with RBNZ.”

“UK inflation just confirmed fears about the UK’s growth/inflation trade-off and does nothing to help sterling at all. EURGBP has further to rise even if GBPUSD is protected by the Euro.” 

“EURUSD really ought to pause below 1.05, and any spike through would be overshoot for now.”

“USDJPY has history when it comes to dramatic reversals but needs lower, not choppy, US yields to avoid a period of consolidation. US Retail Sales data may tell us more on that front, but another impression I get is that a lot of people are expecting an imminent, significant deterioration in all the US data. The risk is that the American consumer isn’t out of spending power yet.”

See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, big boost in October