EUR/USD has now rebounded by nine big figures since reaching a trough on 28th September. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the EUR/USD seasonal outlook in December and note that the pair has gained on 14 occasions over a twenty-year period. 

Watch the seasonal EUR bias in December

“There is a strong seasonal bias to be mindful of in December. In the last ten years, EUR/USD has gained on eight occasions in December, by an impressive average of 1.5%.” 

“Over a twenty-year period, EUR/USD has gained on 14 occasions. This could be a reflection of position squaring ahead of year-end. On average over these periods, market participants have run EUR short positions. That influence could be powerful this year given the scale of long Dollar positioning given the huge move in 2022. That said, the EUR/USD gains in October and November may mean this has already started.”