• USD/INR retreats from weekly high, prints mild losses of late.
• Greenback remains depressed as US activities shrank for the seventh consecutive month.
• Cautious mood ahead of key data/events join sluggish yields, Oil price rebound to probe Indian Rupee buyers.

USD/INR bulls take a breather after a two-day uptrend amid Wednesday’s sluggish markets, refreshing intraday low near 81.50 at the latest. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair traces the inactive yields, as well as the mixed performance of the US Dollar, amid a light calendar at home.

After reversing the two-day uptrend, the US Treasury bond yields remain sidelined as market players await fresh clues to confirm the recession woes. With this, the USD/INR pair portrays the cautious mood ahead of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

It should be noted that the US S&P Global PMIs moderated for January but failed to regain the 50.0 mark. That said, the Composite PMI for January increased to 46.6 from 45.0 prior and the 44.7 consensuses, marking the seventh consecutive below-50 figure.

With this, Fed fund futures signal the market’s receding hawkish bias. “Fed fund futures see only two more quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, before it starts cutting rates later in the year. The Federal Reserve itself has insisted it still has 75 bps of increases in the pipeline,” said Reuters.

As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) braces for the three-week downtrend despite being inactive around 102.00 as of late.

That said, the WTI crude oil prices also consolidate recent losses around $80.50, up half a percent to snap a two-day losing streak by the press time. As India relies on Oil imports and has a record Current Account Deficit (CAD), the higher Oil price weighs on the INR.

Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses but the stocks in the Asia-Pacific region trade mixed and support the currencies of the zone.

Moving on, a light calendar challenges USD/INR moves while Thursday’s US Q4 GDP will be crucial for near-term directions. Following that, Friday’s opening of Adani Enterprise Initial Public Offering (IPO) from India will be important to gauge foreign inflows that seemed to have favored INR bulls of late. It’s worth observing, however, that the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the most important event for the pair traders to watch for clear directions.

Technical analysis

With the latest pullback, the USD/INR pair marks another failure to cross the 100-DMA, around 81.80 by the press time, which in turn favors the odds of witnessing a fresh monthly low, currently around 80.90.