Further hawkish policy guidance from the ECB today would provide further encouragement to EUR bulls. However, economists at Rabobank expect the EUR/USD pair to move back lower toward the 1.06 level over the coming months. 

US labour data crucial to determine if EUR/USD can hold above 1.10

“While there is some scope for profit-taking, assuming another hawkish press conference from ECB President Lagarde today we would expect pullbacks to be viewed as EUR buying opportunities.” 

“It is likely that the outcome of tomorrow’s US jobs data will dictate whether EUR/USD will muster the energy to hold above the 1.10 area near-term. That said, given our view that the Fed will not cut rates this year and that EUR bulls will run out of steam, we expect that the USD will find support towards the middle of the year and look for a move lower to EUR/USD 1.06 on a three-month view.”

See – ECB Preview: Forecasts from 14 major banks, another 50 bps hike