The Dollar peaked in September when real rates also peaked. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, expects to see the end of the downtrend for now.

A bucket of cold water to calm Dollar bears down

“A pause seems likely. This week’s economic calendar is short on major market-moving data, and market participants may find themselves discussing the meaning of the US data rather than doing anything.”  

“We’d warn that the rates and FX market reactions are tame so far, and that leaves room for the Dollar bounce to go further.”

“USD/JPY to 135, EUR/USD to 1.05 and GBP/USD back below 1.20 seem more likely this month than another slide for the Dollar. 

“But none of that alters the two key market drivers. Firstly, as the risk of a deep global downturn fades, the Dollar remains vulnerable; and secondly, the lack of a new dominant theme means we can see choppy trading conditions until one emerges.”