Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assesses the latest results from retail sales in Singapore.

Key Takeaways

“Singapore’s retail sales rebounded to end 2022 on a positive note, expanding 1.3% m/m, 7.4% y/y in Dec while Nov’s numbers saw some improvement to -3.6% m/m, 6.5% y/y. For the full year, retail sales rose by 10.5% in 2022, above our forecast of 10.5% but below 2021’s 11.1%.”

“The estimated total retail sales value was S$4.69bn in Dec (from S$4.0 bn in Nov). While the Dec months typically see a spike in retail sales value (likely due to festive spending and gift buying), the latest print is the highest monthly record since the data is made available in 1997.  We suspect the high Dec sales was due to a combination of stronger demand (with some element of revenge spending), higher prices (inflation) and buying ahead of Jan 2023 GST hike.”

“Outlook – We have conservatively upgraded our 2023 retail sales growth forecast to 5.0% (from 2.3% previously) with the upside potential to our forecast mainly due to China’s lifting of zero-Covid policy.”