Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja assesses the latest GDP results in Indonesia.

Key Takeaways

“4Q22 GDP growth came in relatively well within general expectations at 5.0% y/y (3Q22: 5.7%) or slowing to 0.4% q/q from 1.8% in the preceding quarter.  This has brought about the full year 2022 GDP growth at 5.3%, strongest in the aftermath of post-pandemic recovery (2020: -2%; 2021: 3.7%).”

“Though easing, contribution from all the expenditure side, except continued contraction in government spending, continue to sustain growth momentum. From the sectoral output basis, all sectors recorded growth in 3Q22, with transportation and logistics topping growth pace for 2 quarters in a row, consistent with the ongoing reopening that virtually has undone all the pandemic mobility and activity restrictions.”

“Moderating global commodity prices as well as the inflation-biting impact on the domestic household consumption is likely to render slower growth for the Indonesian economy this year. We also have factored in seasonally higher fiscal impacts from election-related unto growth in the latter half of this year. All in all, we forecast Indonesia’s GDP to grow by around 5% in 2023.”