Gold price is building on its recovery from four-week troughs of $1,860. Still, buyers seem to lack conviction, economists at TD Securities report.

Gold prices still remain overbought

“Shanghai Gold trader liquidations continue to suggest that behemoth Chinese buying activity over the last few months was likely exacerbated by Lunar New Year celebrations amid China's reopening, but is now on track to normalize. Still, with positioning now slightly below average, the pace of liquidations from this cohort could slow. This leaves investors as the marginal buyer or seller, which in the recent context increases the market's focus on upcoming data.” 

“We don't expect substantial downside flow from CTAs until prices break the $1,840 range, but the margin of safety against a marginal buying program is razor-thin above $1,900. In turn, while prices still remain overbought, we don't see imminent downside flow without data corroborating a more hawkish path ahead.”