• NZD/USD stays pressured towards short-term key support after unimpressive weekly close.
• Sustained U-turn from 200-SMA, looming bear cross on MACD favor sellers.
• Late January low holds the key to the bear’s defeat.

NZD/USD holds lower grounds as sellers attack the 0.6300 round figure during Monday’s Asian session, following a lackluster weekly closing.

The Kiwi pair’s weakness could be seen in its inability to cross the 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), as well as a clear downside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its January-February upside, near 0.6325 by the press time.

Furthermore, a looming bear cross on the MACD adds strength to the downside bias about NZD/USD.

However, a clear break of the five-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.6285 by the press time, becomes necessary for the NZD/USD bear’s conviction.

Following that, the monthly low near 0.6270 and the previous monthly bottom of 0.6190 will be in focus.

On the flip side, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively near 0.6325 and 0.6365, restrict short-term NZD/USD recovery ahead of the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.6390.

Should the Kiwi pair remains firmer past 0.6390, the 0.6400 round figure and the January 31 swing low, near 0.6415, will be crucial for the NZD/USD buyers to regain control.

Overall, NZD/USD is firmly on the bear’s radar but a trigger is important to activate the downside bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned support line.

NZD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further downside expected