The government is hoping to reach a compromise this week about the Northern Ireland Protocol. Still, economists at Commerzbank stick to their GBP sceptical view.

Brexit, once again

“An agreement is unlikely to have an immediate effect on the economic outlook of the UK. An end of the conflict is likely to normalise the relations between the trade partners and pave the way for a closer cooperation in other areas (such as science and security). However, for the GBP outlook to improve on a sustainable basis, the economic inefficiencies caused by Brexit will have to be resolved.”

“The resistance from within the Tory party against any sort of Northern Ireland compromise seems to suggest though that even amongst government members there is insufficient backing for an ambitious economic agenda. For example, it is still planned to transfer any retained EU legislation to the British statute books. A mammoth task which will cause legal uncertainty and further potential inefficiency according to industry representatives. We therefore stick to our GBP sceptical view.”