The US Dollar could appreciate further in the near-term. However, economists at Barclays Research expect the greenback to ease later in the year, lifting the EUR/USD pair to 1.12 by end-2023.

Scope for further USD strength in the near-term

“The disinflation narrative is under question and the market has increased the probability of a 50 bps hike in March. The market (and the Fed) remains data dependent, and will focus on the key employment report next week.” 

“Although our views are for the Dollar to normalize to fair value by end-2023 (e.g. towards 1.12 vs EUR); in the near term, the risks are for further Dollar strength.”