• USD/INR fades bounce off five-week low but struggles to gain momentum ahead of top-tier event.
• Cautious optimism, sluggish yield and mildly bid Oil price add to the Indian Rupee pair trader’s indecision.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony eyed amid fears of dovish guidance versus mostly firmer yields.

USD/INR treads water around 81.80 during early Tuesday, following the successful rebound from a five-week low the previous day.

The Indian Rupee (INR) pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the market’s dicey performance ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony. Also acting as a trading hurdle could be the mixed headlines surrounding China, as well as mildly bid Oil prices.

That said, WTI crude oil prints mild gains around $80.80 after rising to the highest levels in five weeks, up for the sixth consecutive day in a row, amid hopes of more energy demand from China and a likely decline in supplies from the Middle East. India’s reliance on energy imports and record current account deficit make the INR vulnerable to Oil price changes.

On the same line could be fears of fresh US-China tussles, due to the likely meeting between the officials from the US and Taiwan, as well as amid Beijing’s criticism of Washington’s cold war strategies.

Alternatively, US Dollar Index (DXY) weakness underpins the bearish bias surrounding the USD/INR pair. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies drop for the third consecutive day to 104.18 at the latest.

Sluggish yields and mildly bid US stock futures, as well as an upbeat mood in the Asia-Pacific zone, due to China trade numbers, seem to weigh on the USD/INR prices.

That said, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around a two-week high marked the previous day, up 0.15% intraday near 4,060 at the latest. However, US 10-year Treasury bond yields initially dropped to a one-week low of 3.897% on Monday before ending the day with mild gains near 3.96%, staying around the same level by the press time. On the same line, the two-year counterpart ended Monday’s North American trading session with 0.60% intraday gains at 4.88%, mostly unchanged at the latest.

Moving ahead, US/INR traders should pay attention to Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony and Friday’s US jobs report.

Technical analysis

A daily closing below the four-month-old ascending support line, near 81.60 at the latest, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bears to take control.