- ECB deposit rate to peak at 3.75% or higher as inflation stays sticky – Reuters poll
Market news
ECB deposit rate to peak at 3.75% or higher as inflation stays sticky – Reuters poll
“The peak for European Central Bank interest rates will be much higher than thought only a month ago,” per the latest survey of 60 economists polled by Reuters during March 7-9. The respondents also added that stubbornly high inflation would push policymakers to be more aggressive.
Key findings
All 60 economists polled by Reuters March 7-9 believed her and said the bank's deposit rate would rise 50 basis points to 3.00% on Thursday.
Medians in the poll showed the euro zone's central bank adding 25 basis points at the following three meetings in May, June and July to give a terminal deposit rate of 3.75%, higher than the 3.25% peak expected in a February poll.
While the median showed the deposit rate peaking at 3.75% it was a view held by only 19 of 60 economists surveyed. Twelve said it would be higher but 29 said it would be lower. The highest forecast was for 4.25%.
However, over 90% of respondents to an extra question, or 35 of 38, said the risks were the terminal rate would be higher than they expect.
There is now only a 34% chance of a recession within the coming year, the poll found, down from 50% in a January poll.
Also read:EUR/USD bulls poke 1.0600 as mixed US data test Fed hawks, US NFP, ECB’s Lagarde eyed
Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer