A nervous calm returns to FX markets. Softer US Retail Sales data could weigh on the Dollar, economists at ING report.

DXY could nudge down to 102.75

“For the Dollar – more settled financial conditions should allow it to reconnect with softer rate differentials and leave the Dollar slightly offered. Our concern is, however, that the USD could easily cross its 'smile curve' should US banking sector stress re-appear and banks want to hoard Dollars – that is why we should focus on the EUR cross-currency basis swap now.”

“Expect a further day of consolidation in the Dollar, although softer US retail sales figures could give it a gentle downside bias.”

“DXY could nudge down to 102.75 should conditions allow.”

See – US Retail Sales Forecast: Correction following January surge – Previews by eight banks