Concerns over the banking sector have led to a move towards safe haven assets and Fold has clearly benefited from this. While economists at ING see a short-term pullback in prices, we expect these to strengthen over the second half of the year.

Fed policy should support Gold later in the year

“Fed policy is likely to be key for Gold over the medium term. We see a final 25 bps hike in May, which would leave the Fed funds range at 5-5.25%. Rate cuts will likely then become the theme for 2H23, and we see the Fed cutting by 75 bps in the fourth quarter. We would expect real yields to follow policy rates lower later in the year, which should prove supportive for Gold prices.”

“Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see Gold prices moving higher over 2H23 and expect spot Gold to average $2,000 over 4Q23. The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year.”