Economists at Credit Suisse preview the upcoming monetary policy decision in India. Whether the RBI hikes should have a limited impact on their USD/INR forecast of 81.00-83.00 in Q2.

RBI will continue intervening at the 81.00-83.00 levels to limit volatility

“We think more balanced trade flows and a less hawkish Fed outlook will result in less Rupee depreciation pressure. However, we still think RBI intervention is the main driver for the USD/INR exchange rate. 

“The RBI has intervened at 81.00 and 83.00 since October 2022. The decision to hike or hold on 6 April is unlikely to shift these RBI intervention levels. As such, we continue to expect USD/INR to trade in a 81.00-83.00 range in Q2.”

See – RBI Preview: Forecasts from five major banks, hiking 25 bps, will be the final?