• USD/INR has scaled above the critical resistance of 82.00 amid a recovery in the USD Index.
• The upside in the US Dollar is being supported by expectations of hot United States core inflation data.
• Bullish bets for oil prices are fading as investors are not convinced of the global recovery.

The USD/INR pair has climbed above the critical resistance of 82.00 in the Asian session after a recovery move. The upside in the US Dollar is being supported by expectations of hot United States core inflation data. The street is expecting a rebound in the US core inflation as the Unemployment Rate has not shown signs of escalating in the Employment data released last week.

US jobless rate was trimmed further to 3.5% from the consensus and the former release of 3.6%. Also, job additions in March matched expectations, which shows the huge demand for labor. Apart from that, monthly Average Hourly Earnings at 0.3% matched consensus and rebounded from the former release of 0.2%.

This shows that firms are keen on acquisitions of talent at higher offerings, which is keeping expectations for a rebound in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at elevated levels. Economists at BBH expect “Headline inflation at 0.2% m/m and 5.1% y/y vs. 0.4% m/m and 6.0% y/y in February.  A core is expected at 0.4% m/m and 5.6% y/y vs. 0.5% m/m and 5.5% y/y in February.” 

On the oil front, oil prices have rebounded after a corrective move and have reclaimed the $80.00 hurdle. Meanwhile, bullish bets for oil prices despite the announcement of production cuts by OPEC+ are fading as investors are not convinced of the global recovery amid higher interest rates and a potential banking crisis. It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil in the world and a recovery in the oil price will impact the India Rupee.