EUR/CHF has traded in a reasonably narrow range of 0.9850-1.000 over recent weeks. Economists at ING note that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) prefers a 0.98-1.00 range near term.

SNB to remain in control

“Probably limiting the topside at 1.00 has been the SNB. Here, the SNB increasingly tells us it has been selling FX reserves to keep CHF stable – largely in line with monetary rather financial stability priorities. The SNB sold CHF27bn of FX in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

“Last year we had felt that the SNB would want a lower EUR/CHF to help fight inflation. It is still threatening another hike – we look for a final move in the policy rate to 1.75% in June. But the financial stress and weaker economic outlook probably mean the SNB prefers a 0.98-1.00 range near term.”