Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held in March.

The Australian central bank surprised markets by pausing its 10-time rate hike trajectory in the last monetary policy meeting. However, the policymakers have been trying to convince markets that they can renew the rate lift cycle, which in turn makes today’s RBA Meeting Minutes more important for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Apart from the RBA Minutes, China’s first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected 2.2% QoQ versus 0.0% prior, will also entertain the AUD/USD pair traders due to Canberra’s trading ties with Beijing. The data is up for release at 02:00 AM GMT and is scheduled to be joined by China Retail Sales and Industrial Production for March.

Ahead of the China data, Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “Any weakness in key economic data, including fixed asset investment and industrial production in China will weigh on sentiment.”

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD portrays the market’s pre-event anxiety as it makes rounds to 0.6700 after declining in the last two consecutive days. The Aussie pair previously took clues from the broad US Dollar gains, as well as geopolitical fears emanating from China. Adding strength to the Aussie pair’s bearish bias is the latest Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) pause in the rate hike trajectory.

That said, the Aussie pair’s further downside hinges on how the RBA Minutes manage to justify its latest stop to the rate hike trajectory. Should the Aussie central bank can convince markets of its ability to renew rate lifts, the AUD/USD pair consolidate the recent losses. However, the moves are likely to remain inconclusive unless China’s Q1 GDP supports the bulls. Otherwise, the broadly dovish bias surrounding the RBA and fears of China’s gradual recovery may exert downside pressure on the Aussie pair price.

Technically, Bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line hint at the continuation of the AUD/USD pair’s downward trajectory. However, the 21-SMA and 200-SMA, respectively near 0.6730 and 0.6685, restrict the Aussie pair’s immediate moves ahead of the key catalysts.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Forecast: Points to consolidation around 0.6700 if the Dollar permits

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Struggles between 21 and 200 SMAs as RBA Minutes, China Q1 GDP loom

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.