UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the March month Claimant Count figures together with the ILO Unemployment Rate in the three months to February at 06:00 AM GMT.

Today’s UK employment data becomes more important for the GBP/USD pair traders considering the latest retreat indecision among the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, especially amid looming recession woes.

The UK job market report is expected to show that the Average Weekly Earnings, Including Bonuses, in the three months to February, eased to 5.1% YoY versus 5.7% prior while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen declining to 6.2% from 6.5% prior readings.

Further, the ILO Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.7% for the three months ending in February. It’s worth noting that the market consensus suggests the Claimant Count Change figures arrive at -11.8K in March versus -11.2K prior.

How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD grinds higher towards the 1.2400 round figures, printing mild gains while making rounds to intraday high during the first positive day in three. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers the latest US Dollar retreat amid a cautious mood ahead of Wednesday’s US debt ceiling plan. Also favoring the Cable pair buyers could be the latest recovery in the UK data and chatters suggesting no nearness to the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy pivot.

It’s worth noting that the recent chatters surrounding upbeat UK employment conditions and a likely increase in government investments could allow today’s British data to provide a positive surprise and help extend the latest GBP/USD rebound. However, the hawkish Fed concerns are a much stronger catalyst that weighs on the Cable pair and hence unless witnessing a strong UK jobs report, the Cable bears remain hopeful, apart from witnessing a kneejerk reaction to the mildly positive data.

Technically, a clear downside break of an upward-sloping support line from March 24, now immediate resistance near 1.2435, joins bearish MACD signals to keep the GBP/USD bears hopeful. However, the 21-DMA challenges the pair sellers around 1.2375 of late.

Key notes

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Approaches 1.2400 ahead of UK Employment data 

GBP/USD justifies pre-data anxiety around 1.2380 ahead of UK employment numbers

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).