New Zealand quarterly employment report overview

Early Wednesday in Asia, at 22:45 GMT Tuesday the world over, the global market sees the first quarter (Q1) 2023 employment data from Statistics New Zealand.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) surprise rate lift, as well as robust inflation and hopes of tighter monetary policy from other major central banks, today’s jobs report becomes crucial for the NZD/USD traders, mainly due to the wage prices index data.

Market consensus suggests a slight increase in the headline Unemployment Rate to 3.5% from 3.4% while the Employment Change figure is likely to increase to 0.4% from 0.2%. Further, the Participation Rate may remain unchanged at 71.7% but the Labour Cost Index could rise to 4.6% QoQ from 4.3% prior.

Ahead of the data, ANZ said,

How could it affect the NZD/USD?

NZD/USD edges higher around 0.6200, defending the previous day’s upbeat performance led by the US Dollar’s retreat and upbeat catalysts surrounding China.

That said, the Kiwi pair is likely to mark a kneejerk positive reaction in case the New Zealand job numbers arrive strong, which more is likely considering the tight labor market in Auckland. However, the NZD/USD prices may not remain firmer for long unless the data is extremely positive, mainly due to the current risk-off mood. Furthermore, the doubts about the hawkish mood of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could please sellers in case the data disappoints.

Technically, a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle, now immediate support near 0.6200, keeps the NZD/USD buyers hopeful.

Key Notes

NZD/USD bulls move in on key weekly resistance into the NZ jobs data

About New Zealand unemployment rate and employment change

The quarterly report on New Zealand's unemployment rate and employment change is being released by Statistics New Zealand.

The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

On the other hand, employment change is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).