• AUD/USD gains strong positive traction on Monday and snaps a two-day losing streak.
• A positive risk tone prompts some USD selling and provides a goodish lift to the major.
• The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive bullish traders.

The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction on the first day of a new week and recovers a major part of Friday's losses to a one-and-half-week low. Spot prices stick to strong intraday gains just below the 0.6700 mark through the first half of the European session and for now, seem to have stalled last week's retracement slide from the highest level since February 24.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its strong gains recorded over the past two days and eases from its highest level since early April touched this Monday, which, in turn, prompts some short-covering around the AUD/USD pair. A generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback and benefitting the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, any meaningful downside for the USD seems elusive amid reviving bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might stick to its hawkish stance in the wake of a rise in the US long-term inflation expectations.

In fact, the preliminary May reading from the University of Michigan released on Friday showed that consumers see prices over the next five years climbing at an annual rate of 3.2%  - the highest since 2011. This could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for longer, which continues to act as a tailwind for the US Treasury bond yields and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying. This, along with worries about an imminent recession, could keep a lid on any optimism in the markets and contribute to capping the upside for the AUD/USD pair.

That said, the RBA's hawkish outlook, indicating that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, warrants caution for bearish traders. Moving ahead, the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, along with a scheduled speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, might influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch