Is the USD-strength justified? Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, remains skeptical.

Trite hawkishness

“The environment for US monetary policy is likely to change very profoundly. At present, we are looking back at three-quarters of quite impressive US growth, the US labor market remains very tight and the stress in the US financial system seems to be over. In that context hawkish comments by FOMC members are trite.”

“The real test of the US central bankers’ attitude is yet to come, it will come when the real-economic data gets considerably worse. And because we doubt that the Fed will remain hawkish in an adverse environment, I remain skeptical regarding the current USD strength.”