According to the latest survey released by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), economists have deferred their expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut to the first quarter of next year while raising their inflation forecasts and outlook on the US labor markets.

Additional takeaways

“The poll's median view sees modest levels of growth prevailing through 2024, with an expected 0.4% rise between the fourth quarter of 2022 to the final three months of 2023.”

“Respondents upsized their estimate of inflation in 2023, seeing the consumer price index up by 3.3% from the last quarter of 2022 to the final quarter of 2023.”

“Respondents are now saying they expect an average 142,000 jobs to be gained per month, up from 102,000 in the February survey. The jobless rate, currently at 3.4%, is projected to average 3.7% this year, down from 3.9% in the February poll.”

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