Economists at TD Securities discuss the Oil market outlook.

Risks of renewed Oil weakness are not fundamentally caused

“While the risks of renewed Oil price weakness are very real, they are increasingly becoming speculative investor driven, and not fundamentally caused. A drop in liquidity associated with a lack of a solution on the US debt ceiling front renewed hawkish talk from the Fed, or increasing concern surrounding growing Covid cases in China could well see spec knee-jerk selling and another test of recent lows again. However, we don’t view this as likely, or very durable should it occur.”

“We see Crude trading in the $90/bbl range in the second half, driven by still strong demand growth this year, OPEC+ commitment to tighten markets and continued demand recovery in China due to post-COVID normalization.”