IDR has been the best performer among Asian currencies this year. It is up by 4.6% vs USD year-to-date. Economists at Commerzbank expect the USD/INR pair to hover around the 14,600-15,000 range near term.

BI will be averse to excessive strength in the currency

“The pullback in commodity prices has not hurt IDR’s prospects. Instead, the current account balance improvement has been a major supportive factor. The current account balance has been in surplus since the second half of 2021, and it rose to 1.2% of GDP in Q1 2023. It should stay in surplus territory for the rest of the year, aided partly by lower imports.”

“We suspect Bank Indonesia will also be averse to excessive strength in the currency. We look for consolidation in USD/IDR between the 14,600-15,000 range near term.”