• USD/INR clings to mild gains during the first daily run-up in four.
• Convergence of 200-SMA, bottom of monthly symmetrical triangle restricts immediate downside.
• 100-SMA, triangle’s top line challenge Indian Rupee bears.
• Softer India inflation lures USD/INR buyers ahead of US CPI.

USD/INR prints mild gains around 82.45 as it extends the early-day rebound from the short-term key support confluence heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair justifies downbeat India Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ahead of US inflation releases.

That said, India's CPI eased to 4.25% in May versus 4.42% expected and 4.70% prior, which in turn justifies the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBA) latest pause in rate hike and suggests some more inactions to come from the Indian central bank. On the other hand, the early signals for the US inflation numbers have been downbeat and hence prod the USD/INR bulls.

Also read: US Inflation Preview: Why the US Dollar is more likely to fall than rise, three scenarios

Technically, the USD/INR pair bounces off a convergence of the 200-SMA and the lower line of a one-month-old symmetrical triangle, around 82.33 by the press time.

The recovery moves also take clues from the RSI (14) line’s rebound from the oversold territory, suggesting further weakness of the Indian Rupee (INR).

Hence, the USD/INR price is likely to rise towards the short-term key upside hurdle of 82.60 comprising the 100-SMA and top line of the aforementioned triangle.

It should be noted, however, that the USD/INR pair’s run-up beyond 82.60 won’t hesitate to challenge the previous monthly high of around 83.00 whereas a downside break of 82.33 needs validation from the mid-May swing low of around 82.15 to convince the pair sellers.

USD/INR: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited upside expected