As we move into H2, we still look for a broadly higher USD, and in general expect near-term USD strength. We think that as long as sticky inflation remains a concern globally, we would expect the EUR/USD to remain soft.

We still find the outlook for the US economy less gloomy relative to the Euro area, which should weigh on the EUR/USD in H2. 

We expect the EUR/USD to decline towards 1.06/1.03 on a 6M/12M horizon.