24-hour view: We indicated yesterday “the price actions still appear to be consolidative” and we expected EUR to trade in a range of 1.0890/1.0950. Our view of consolidation was not wrong as EUR rose to 1.0946 and then dropped to 1.0891 before rebounding to end the day largely unchanged at 1.0916 (-0.05%). Upward momentum has improved a tad and today, we expect EUR to edge higher to 1.0955. The major resistance at 1.1000 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a break of 1.0890 (minor support is at 1.0905) indicates the current mild upward pressure has faded. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (16 Jun, spot at 1.0940) wherein EUR “is likely to rise further, albeit at a slower pace.” We added, “the next level to watch is 1.1000.” After EUR consolidated the past couple of days, upward momentum has waned somewhat. In the next 1-2 days, EUR must break and stay above 1.0955, or the chance for it to advance to 1.1000 will diminish quickly. Conversely, if EUR breaks below 1.0860 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.0845), it will indicate that the EUR strength that started more than a week ago has run its course.