• GBP looks in need of more aggressive rate support – Scotiabank

Market news

21 June 2023

GBP looks in need of more aggressive rate support – Scotiabank

GBP underperforms after another CPI overshoot. Economist at Scotiabank analyze Sterling outlook.

Focus on BoE 

The May data showed headline CPI rising 0.7% in the month (0.5% expected) and accelerating to 8.7% in the year. Core CPI rose to 7.1% in the year and my calculations show the 3m annualized core rate holding above 12%, underscoring the sharp pick up in core prices since the start of the year. 

The data should seal a 25 bps hike from the BoE tomorrow, with swaps pricing in a slightly greater chance of 50 bps (32 bps priced in, from 28 bps prior to the data). 

The GBP, which slumped close to a cent on the USD around the data, looks in need of more aggressive rate support.

 

Market Focus
Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer
Open Demo Account & Personal Page
I understand and accept the Privacy Policy and agree to my name and contact details being used by TeleTrade to contact me about this.