We think the AI momentum will build further in H2 and the 500 pts gain in the S&P will not reverse. Consequently, we raise our S&P 500 year-end target from 3,800 to 4,300. 

We believe that profit margin reversal, credit weakness and sharply rising recession risk will most likely be visible in 1H24, bringing the S&P 500 back to 3,800 (our S&P 500 recession estimate). 

Ultimately, the new broad-based bull market is likely to start with a mild recession, Fed rate cuts and/or a positive yield curve.