24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that “the price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase” and we expected GBP to trade in a range between 1.2690 and 1.2760. GBP then traded in a range of 1.2689/1.2748 before closing little changed at 1.2712 (-0.03%). The price actions offer no fresh clues and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, likely between 1.2685 and 1.2750. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (22 Jun, spot at 1.2770) wherein the recent GBP strength has ended and it is likely to trade between 1.2650 and 1.2850 for now. Our view was not wrong, as GBP traded in a relatively quiet manner over the past few days. While the underlying tone has softened somewhat, there are no early signs that GBP is ready to head lower in a sustained manner. In other words, we continue to hold the same view for now.