24-hour view: We did not anticipate the sharp rise in EUR that sent it to a high of 1.0976 (we were expecting it to consolidate). Upward momentum has improved, albeit not much. While there is room for EUR to rise further, it is highly unlikely to reach last week’s high near 1.1010 (there is another resistance level at 1.0990). If EUR breaks below 1.0915 (minor support is at 1.0935), it would suggest that the current upward pressure has faded.

Next 1-3 weeks: After EUR fell sharply last Friday, we indicated on Monday (26 Jun, spot at 1.0900) that it “is likely to trade with a downward bias, but the solid support levels at 1.0840 and 1.0805 might not be easy to break.” Yesterday (27 Jun), EUR soared to a high of 1.0976. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.0970 indicates that the downward bias has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. From here, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.0895 and 1.1010. Looking ahead, if EUR breaks clearly above 1.1010, it would suggest the start of a sustained advance.