US data has been impressive and may keep the USD elevated for longer than many are forecasting, but as yesterday’s ANZBO survey showed, confidence is recovering here too, so the outlook for the Kiwi is very nuanced.

But if the thinking around the RBNZ starts to change and the AUD reacts positively to an RBA hike next week (7 of 13 analysts expect a hike, including ANZ), the worst may be behind it. Either way, FX remains a global, rather than local story.