June was almost a mirror image of May’s price action as EUR/USD recouped the majority of the losses it suffered during the prior month. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.
We expect another 25 bps hike from the ECB in July, but that is largely in the price, and with EUR/USD pushing back up towards the 1.10 handle, we think upside for the pair is likely to be capped at this juncture.
Our forecast is for EUR/USD to trade down through support at the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at 1.0875 and the 100-DMA at 1.0816 to an area of heavy price congestion around the 1.07 handle.