We already hold a negative outlook for EUR/USD and are looking for resistance at 1.0998 to ideally cap for a test and then break of the uptrend from last September at 1.0766. This would then be seen to clear the way for a fall back to the 1.0634 late May low, then medium-term support, starting at 1.0585 and stretching down to 1.0501: the 200-DMA, March low, the lower end of the uptrend channel from the beginning of the year, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022/2023 uptrend.

Whilst this key support should continue to be respected, a break lower would indeed see a major top established, clearing the way for a more sustained decline with support then seen initially at 1.0317 ahead of 1.0133.