The BRL and other EM currencies still enjoy gains from local domestic rates held in restrictive territory and from the high spread over global interest rates. But, a market repricing of Fed cuts this year could erode BRL gains. 

For now, the market expectation of a reversal of the US tightening cycle and a more benign view of the fiscal framework still lead the BRL to post gains. 

As appreciation drivers prevail in the short term, we now see the USD/BRL trading at 5.05 by end-2023 and 5.15 by end-2024.