The Yen weakened sharply in June. Economists at MUFG Bank discuss JPY outlook.
Japan's equity market outperformance, positive inflation in land and property prices, high and sustained household inflation expectations, and underlying inflation at a level not seen since 1981 leave every BoJ meeting as live for a surprise policy change.
The Yen to us looks over-extended to the downside and we see a BoJ shift in YCC and a Fed pause by September helping fuel a sustained turnaround.
USD/JPY – Q3 2023 136.00 Q4 2023 134.00 Q1 2024 132.00 Q2 2024 130.00
EUR/JPY – Q3 2023 149.60 Q4 2023 150.10 Q1 2024 149.20 Q2 2024 143.00