EUR/USD is currently stuck in a range. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.
We expect more ECB than Fed tightening in H2, Fed easing in H1 2023 as the US slips into a mild recession, and EUR/USD to have a chance to get back closer to the pandemic peak level (1.23, Jan 2021).
The biggest risk is that we stay in a much narrower range, i.e., EUR/USD meanders in a 1.05-1.15 range for the foreseeable future, in the face of a synchronised global slowdown.