Another hike this month remains likely, with the door likely left open for a September move as well. Rates may only fall slowly thereafter, as well, adding to EUR support.

The EUR’s bullish break out from the June consolidation range has not extended too far and is consolidating today in a narrow range. But the move has room to develop. The initial target should be a push – and hold – above 1.10 and then further gains to retest the YTD high at 1.1110.