We see balanced risk and reward in broad commodity indexes. Weaker-than-expected growth in China means that concerns about industrial metal demand remain elevated. That said, secular demand drivers (such as the net-zero carbon transition) should provide longer-term support, and in energy, supply discipline means that inventories remain at structurally low levels. 

The Oil market is likely to tighten further in the second half, and we forecast Brent Crude prices rising to $90/bbl by year-end. 

Gold prices should be supported by a resumption of the US Dollar's downtrend and we like the yellow metal as a diversifier and a hedge within portfolios.