We believe that for Gold, the Fed policy is still key over the medium term. We believe the downside remains limited for Gold as the Fed is close to the end of its monetary tightening cycle, with the expected hike at the Fed's meeting next week already priced in for bullion.

We see prices moving higher over the second half of next year, given that the Fed should start to pause its rate hiking cycle, while geopolitical instability will also provide headwinds for Gold prices looking forward.

We forecast prices to average $1,900 in the third quarter and $1,950 in the fourth quarter. 

We expect prices to move higher again in the first quarter of 2024 to average $2,000 with the assumption around this that the Fed starts cutting rates in the first quarter of next year.