24-hour view: Yesterday, we held the view that USD “has likely moved into a consolidation phase”, and we expected it to trade between 140.70 and 141.90. USD then traded in a narrower range than expected (140.84/141.72). The price actions still appear to be consolidative. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range of 140.60/141.65. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (24 Jul, spot at 141.70). We highlighted that “the rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to USD rising to 143.00.” USD has not been able to make headway on the upside, and the chance of USD rising to 143.00 has decreased. On the downside, if USD breaks below 140.00 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that 143.00 is not coming into view.