After USD/THB plunged to a low of 33.75 and rebounded, we highlighted last Monday (24 Jul, spot at 34.50) that “The sharp drop appears to be overdone and we do not expect USD/THB to weaken this week.” We were of the view that USD/THB “is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 34.00 and 35.00.” USD/THB then traded in a narrower range than expected (34.03/34.61). The price actions still appear to be consolidative.

This week, we continue to expect USD/THB to trade in a range, even though the slightly soft underlying tone suggests a lower range of 33.80/34.50.